According to state election officials, about 90 percent of all votes will be announced immediately after polls close — speed made possible by the fact that ballots are due by Nov. 3 at the latest and can be processed as soon as they arrive. A second batch of ballots is scheduled to be released at 3 a.m. Eastern.This evidence suggests that polling bias has been largely unpredictable from election to election. Beyond the shadow of a doubt, the polling was biased against Democrats in 1998, 2006 and 2012.It’s possible, of course, that the trials will be delayed, or that Trump will be acquitted. But if he’s convicted of felony charges in any of the cases before Nov. 5, 2024, the country will be ...Nov 23, 2016 · However, the two states showed opposite results: The use of any machine voting in a county was associated with a 5.6-percentage-point reduction in Democratic two-party vote share in Wisconsin but ... Dec 07 Brett Coomer/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images, FILE Who won the fourth Republican debate? 538 partnered with The Washington Post and Ipsos to poll Republican voters. December 07, 2023 Issues, not candidates, are motivating young voters Abortion is at the center of young people's political engagement. December 05, 2023The secretary of state’s office told FiveThirtyEight that results will start coming in around 9 p.m. Eastern and be nearly complete around 11:30 p.m. Eastern. Races to Watch. None. Share of...Using the latest data from FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm election forecast, we can see that 117 election deniers and eight election doubters have at least a 95 percent chance of winning. Several additional candidates who have denied the election are in competitive races. In the Senate, though, there will be far fewer election deniers.The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. UPDATED Dec. 9, 2023, at 7:52 PM. Latest Polls. ... An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. KEY. ... Result Net result; Dates i. SAMPLE TYPES. A . ADULTS. V . …Specifically, for midterm elections, you have to take into account which party holds the White House, since that party is at a natural disadvantage in midterm elections. What 3 upcoming elections ...Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.Feb 9, 2021 · Of these 15 states, 11 4 also broke down the results of the 2016 presidential election by voting method. ... Nathaniel Rakich is a senior editor and senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.As a result, Ganim’s win could be moot — unless he wins the redone Democratic primary, in which case this general-election result would stand. —Nathaniel Rakich, 538 Nov 7, 11:55 PMThe average difference between how a district voted in the past two presidential elections and how the country voted overall, with 2016 results weighted 75 percent and 2012 results weighted 25 ...Results will begin coming in at 6 p.m. Eastern as the first polls close in Indiana and Kentucky, but the pace will really pick up with a slew of closings at 7 and 8. By 9 p.m., the polls will have ...And although the Republican, Lesko, is the apparent winner, the election represents another really bad data point for the GOP. Lesko’s margin of victory was only 5 percentage points in a ...Nov 30, 2018 · FiveThirtyEight also took a look at absentee-by-mail ballots in the 9th District and found that the absentee statistics and the election results do imply that something unusual happened in ... Several prominent pollsters achieved accurate results without it — including The New York Times/Siena College, which was named America’s most accurate political pollster by FiveThirtyEight ...After comfortably backing then-GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney by 9 points in 2012, Arizona shifted more than 5 points toward the Democrats in 2016 and then another 4 points in 2020 to hand Biden a …The effects of the French Revolution had a major impact on France and Europe, which influenced and transformed these countries. About.com explains that the effects of the French Revolution resulted in an established democratic institution, ...Coming into the election, FiveThirtyEight put together benchmark margins in all 133 of Virginia’s counties and independent ... as they led 51 seats to 49 seats in still-to-be-finalized results. ...How Republican voters feel about the presidential candidates before and after the first primary debate of the 2024 election cycle. UPDATED Aug. 24, 2023, at 2:52 PM ... The results were similar, with 29 percent saying that DeSantis did the best and 26 percent saying Ramaswamy did. ... All the data presented here comes from polling done …Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.Dec 5, 2023 · Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here . All posts tagged “Election Results” Jun. 14, 2022. What Went Down During The June 14 Primary Elections By FiveThirtyEight. Filed under 2022 Election. ... FiveThirtyEight. Latest Videos.It was a historic year for female candidates — both for those who ran and those who won: 256 women were candidates for the U.S. House or the U.S. Senate in the general election, and as of Nov ...It’s possible, of course, that the trials will be delayed, or that Trump will be acquitted. But if he’s convicted of felony charges in any of the cases before Nov. 5, 2024, the country will be ...Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.An updating average of 2021 California gubernatorial recall election polls, accounting for each poll's quality, recency and sample size. July 14, 2021 July 24, 2021 Aug. 3, 2021 Aug. 14, 2021 Aug. 24, 2021 Sept. 3, 2021 Sept. 14, 2021 Election Day 35 40 45 50 55 60% Keep 57.3% Keep 57.3% Remove 41.5% Remove 41.5% Sept. 14, 2021 Keep +15.8 Sept ...Like we did with New York City and Los Angeles, we’ve divided Chicago into political neighborhoods based on the results of four recent elections: the first round of the 2019 mayor’s race, the ...He then won the election by 7.5. And in our final polling average of the U.S. Senate general election, Walker led by 1.0 point, which was 2.0 points off the actual election result. Although the ...Filed under Special Elections. What Went Down In The Alabama Senate Election Dec. 12 FiveThirtyEight. There are no entries on this page. Live coverage of the Alabama special election for U.S ...8) LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) — Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection to a second term Tuesday, notching another significant statewide victory in an increasingly red state that could serve as a model for other Democrats on how to thrive politically heading into next year’s defining presidential election. “Tonight, Kentucky made a choice, a ...Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.Nov 10, 2022 · Filed under 2022 Election. Published Nov. 10, 2022. While many Republican candidates who have denied the 2020 election results won their midterm races, some newcomers who focused their campaigns ... Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here .Since 1994 — sometimes seen as the starting point of our current political era — the Democrats’ 257-seat result in 2008 stands as the best mark for either party. Men, on the other hand, were ...Ga. Senate Runoff ›. Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, a Democrat, won a runoff election to defeat Herschel Walker, a Trump-backed Republican and former football star. Democrats Win 51 Seats ...This allows you to see which states are expected to have reported results for a selected date and time over the coming days. For example the screenshot above shows (in yellow) all the states who FiveThirtyEight expect to have announced election results by 12 am tomorrow (Nov 9th). The FiveThirtyEight predictions for state election returns …So what would the election results look like if Democrats did 5.4 points better than the FiveThirtyEight forecast currently predicts in every Senate race and 6.3 points better in every House race?Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.Final Lite version of FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate and gubernatorial forecasts as of Nov. 8, 2022, versus actual results. Includes special elections that took place on Nov. 8, 2022. Expected ...Who will win the last big election of 2023? Dec 07. Brett Coomer/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images, FILE. How popular is Joe Biden? Updated Dec. 4, 2023. 40 50 60% Disapprove 55.4% Approve 37.9% See all approval polls. Who won the fourth Republican debate? 538 partnered with The Washington Post and Ipsos to poll Republican voters.December 7, 2023 at 3:00 p.m. EST. (The Washington Post) 4 min. In the fourth and final Republican primary debate poll of 2023, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis edged out former U.N. ambassador Nikki ...Filed under 2022 Election. The Uncalled Races Of The 2022 Election Nov. 14 FiveThirtyEight. There are no entries on this page. Live election results and coverage of the races in the 2022 Midterm ...Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.Take the FiveThirtyEight polling average on March 1, 2020. It showed Biden up by 4.1 percentage points nationally , very close to his eventual 4.5-point popular vote margin.So what would the election results look like if Democrats did 5.4 points better than the FiveThirtyEight forecast currently predicts in every Senate race and 6.3 points better in every House race?Collectively, U.S. House candidates raised more money by Aug. 27 than House candidates raised during the entire 2014 midterm election cycle, and Senate candidates weren’t far behind. Ad volumes ...Results in districts where both candidates had less than a 60 percent chance of winning, according to the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s final preelection forecast, as of 7:04 p.m. Eastern racePublished 12:51 AM PST, November 9, 2022. WASHINGTON (AP) — Follow along for real-time, on-the-ground updates on the 2022 U.S. midterm elections from The Associated Press. Live updates — all times Eastern — are produced by Ashraf Khalil, Annie Ma, Aamer Madhani, Chris Megerian, Mallika Sen and AP journalists around the country.The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.However, the two states showed opposite results: The use of any machine voting in a county was associated with a 5.6-percentage-point reduction in Democratic two-party vote share in Wisconsin but ...8 p.m. Eastern. Races to watch. Senate. Timing of results. Should be pretty fast. A relatively small percentage of people are voting by mail in Alabama, which should help in getting results...1Methods. Toggle Methods subsection. 1.1Transparency of pollster ratings. 2History. Toggle History subsection. 2.1Final projections of 2008 elections.FiveThirtyEight has 30 repositories available. ... Use saved searches to filter your results more quickly. Name. Query. To see all available qualifiers, see our documentation. Cancel Create saved search Sign in ... election-results Public 20 12 1 0 Updated Nov 13, 2023.FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric is the average difference between how a district votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent ...Nov 8, 2016 · 2016 Election Night Nov. 8 FiveThirtyEight. There are no entries on this page. Live coverage and results of the 2016 Election, including the presidential race between Hillary Clinton and Donald ... The Latest Updates On The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary. Ryan Best, Cooper Burton, Aaron Bycoffe, Chris Groskopf, Alex Kimball, Humera Lodhi, Mary Radcliffe and Maya Sweedler. Aug 24, 2023.The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. UPDATED Dec. 9, 2023, at 7:52 PM. Latest Polls. ... An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. KEY. ... Result Net result; Dates i. SAMPLE TYPES. A . ADULTS. V . …Nov 8, 2022 · 2022 House Forecast | FiveThirtyEight. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Visit our live blog to follow along as results come in. UPDATED Nov. 8, 2022, at 12:22 AM. Add Favorite Race. President of the United States. Show Map Show Chart. Precincts Reporting100%. Percentage. Votes. NP. Donald J. Trump (I) (Rep). 69.77%.Nov 30, 2018 · FiveThirtyEight also took a look at absentee-by-mail ballots in the 9th District and found that the absentee statistics and the election results do imply that something unusual happened in ... 07 Nov 2012 ... His final forecast gave Obama a 90.9% chance of victory. Silver also forecast 332 electoral college votes for Obama against 206 for Romney – the ...Sep 16, 2021 · Specifically, for midterm elections, you have to take into account which party holds the White House, since that party is at a natural disadvantage in midterm elections. What 3 upcoming elections ... Published 12:51 AM PST, November 9, 2022. WASHINGTON (AP) — Follow along for real-time, on-the-ground updates on the 2022 U.S. midterm elections from The Associated Press. Live updates — all times Eastern — are produced by Ashraf Khalil, Annie Ma, Aamer Madhani, Chris Megerian, Mallika Sen and AP journalists around the country.By Geoffrey Skelley. Filed under 2022 Election. Next >. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.By Nate Silver. Nov. 8, 2022, at 2:20 AM. ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. When we launched our midterms forecast on June 30, Republicans had a 53 percent chance of taking over the...Nov 8, 2022 · Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Visit our live blog to follow along as results come in. When Republicans and Democrats hold 50 seats each, control of the Senate is determined by the party that holds the vice presidency. If each party holds 50 seats after the 2022 election, Democrats will control the Senate. Representatives to the U.S. House of Representatives are elected every two years. This means that all representative seats are up for election at the same time, both in the years of presidential elections and in the midterm election years.Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.Trump approval. According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 1 44.3 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 52.4 percent disapprove (a net ...FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.Interestingly, that election wasn’t all too dissimilar to 2020 in that the Democrat (Harry Truman) won by carrying a number of close swing states. But perhaps more notably, 2020 was the second ...UPDATE (Nov. 18, 2022, 4:21 p.m.): On Friday, Adam Frisch conceded the race in Colorado’s 3rd District to Rep. Lauren Boebert. Though she leads by just 0.16 per…Trump’s electoral record is hardly unblemished: Democrats won the popular vote for the U.S. House by nearly 9 points in 2018, about the same margin that Trump now trails in national polls, in an ...Jun 8, 2021 · Here’s a look at all 529 forecasts combined, including our presidential forecasts plus the Deluxe version of our congressional forecasts. three versions of our congressional model: Lite, Classic ... Current Senate117thCongress. Interactive MapContested 2022. 2023 Senate118thCongress. You are viewing: . Democrats. Republicans. no 2022 election. CT. MD. VP. S.The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. UPDATED Dec. 5, 2023, at 3:06 PM. Latest Polls. ... An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. KEY. ... Result Net result; Dates i. SAMPLE TYPES. A . ADULTS. V . …Elections are important events that can signal major changes to come in your local, state or federal governments, so it makes sense to be in the know about who and what wins. This guide to tracking election results should make it easier to ...Here Are The Races To Watch. | FiveThirtyEight. 2023 Election. Yes, 2023 Is An Election Year. Here Are The Races To Watch. By Geoffrey Skelley. Jan. 25, 2023, at 6:00 AM. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY ...Ga. Senate Runoff ›. Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, a Democrat, won a runoff election to defeat Herschel Walker, a Trump-backed Republican and former football star. Democrats Win 51 Seats ...Filed under Special Elections. What Went Down In The Alabama Senate Election Dec. 12 FiveThirtyEight. There are no entries on this page. Live coverage of the Alabama special election for U.S ...Election results fivethirtyeight, ego power+ lm2102sp a, diamond nails waterloo iowa
Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 gubernatorial elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight. ... blog to follow along as results come ... the 2010 election .... Election results fivethirtyeight
dan deery toyota in cedar falls iowaUpdating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. April 1, 2023 July 1 Oct. 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100% Trump DeSantis Haley Ramaswamy Nov. 30, 2023 leader Nov. 30, 2023 leader Trump Trump 60.0%. KEY. ESTIMATE.Of these 15 states, 11 4 also broke down the results of the 2016 presidential election by voting method. ... Nathaniel Rakich is a senior editor and senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight.But Only 28 Percent Of General-Election Candidates FiveThirtyEight. October 26, 2018 11:33 AM What If Only Men Voted? Only Women? Only Nonwhite Voters? FiveThirtyEight. June 15, 2022 6:00 AMWashington DC, December 12, 2022 -- The post-election (and final) wave of the FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos Election Tracking poll finds that a plurality of Americans is surprised by the results of the midterms but that the results are largely trusted. Looking ahead to the 118 th Congress, a bipartisan majority of Americans believe curbing inflation ...Polls ending yesterday. President: Republican primary, South Carolina, 2024. AVG. Dec. 6, 2023. Joe Biden Approval. AVG. Asa Hutchinson Favorability among Republicans. AVG. Chris Christie...2022 House Forecast | FiveThirtyEight. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Visit our live blog to follow along as results come in. UPDATED Nov. 8, 2022, at 12:22 AM.FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.FiveThirtyEight hit its first major data gaff in the 2016 elections, proving that creating statistical models behind closed doors does not necessarily lead to the best outcome. As he had done in the 2008-2014 elections, Silver set out to predict first the outcome 2016 Republican Presidential Primary and then the results of the Presidential …Download the data. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is …The 2023 elections were good for Democrats | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast —Leah Askarinam, 538 Nov 07, 7:23 PM EST Earliest Kentucky results suggest slight Democratic improvement To follow up on Geoffrey's latest Kentucky post, we now have 95 percent of the expected vote in from Pendleton County, and 93 percent from Rowan.Every state has its own constitution in which governor term limits are outlined. There are 37 states that place various term limits on state governors and elections.The vote will be an early bellwether for how Americans are thinking about abortion in the lead-up to the midterms. According to the first publicly released poll of the campaign, conducted by co ...Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.In this election, Colorado weighed in as 9.1% more Democratic than the nation as a whole. The results established Colorado as a Democratic stronghold, rather than the Democratic-leaning battleground state it had been for the past three election cycles and previously a Republican leaning state, as Trump became the first Republican incumbent since William …But so far, special election results are one of the better indicators for Democrats’ prospects in 2022. In the six U.S. House special elections that took place in 2021, Democrats overperformed ...An interactive electoral map derived from FiveThirtyEight's probabilistic model for the 2020 presidential election. Search our Site: Search for Your Local Elected Officials: ... General Election Polls 2024 Republican Primary Latest Republican Primary Polls 2024 Democratic Primary 2020 Presidential Election Results Historical Elections.How Our 2022 Midterm Forecasts Performed. By Nate Silver. Filed under 2022 Election. Next >. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections ...AUSTIN, Texas—No, Galen Druke can’t simply gaze into a crystal ball to announce who will win the 2024 presidential election. But what the FiveThirtyEight host and podcaster can do is use data to give context to what may happen in what’s shaping up to be a particularly contentious campaign season.. Speaking at the NCSL Forecast ’24 …Filed under Special Elections. What Went Down In The Alabama Senate Election Dec. 12 FiveThirtyEight. There are no entries on this page. Live coverage of the Alabama special election for U.S ...Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.Nov 8, 2022 · 2022 House Forecast | FiveThirtyEight. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Visit our live blog to follow along as results come in. UPDATED Nov. 8, 2022, at 12:22 AM. 08 Nov 2023 ... Election Day is in the books, and here is a breakdown of the results.Live coverage and results of the 2021 California gubernatorial recall election. Voters in the state will decide whether to remove Gov. Gavin Newsom and — if removed — whom to replace him with.Nov 9, 2022 · Coming into Election Day, Democrats and Republicans each held 50 seats in the Senate, but Democrats held power via Vice President Kamala Harris’s tie-breaking vote. 1 To shift the balance of ... Collectively, U.S. House candidates raised more money by Aug. 27 than House candidates raised during the entire 2014 midterm election cycle, and Senate candidates weren’t far behind. Ad volumes ...Nov 8, 2022 · Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Visit our live blog to follow along as results come in. When Republicans and Democrats hold 50 seats each, control of the Senate is determined by the party that holds the vice presidency. If each party holds 50 seats after the 2022 election, Democrats will control the Senate. FiveThirtyEight underestimated Donald Trump’s vote shares by state to a modest but statistically significant extent. We further consider how the polls performed when the more primitive aggregator Real Clear Politics combined their results, and then how well single statewide polls performed without aggregation.Nov 6, 2018 · Live coverage and results of the 2018 midterm Election. Analysis of the race for control of the Senate and the House of Representatives from Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team. A check mark for “Won?” means the candidate advanced to the general election. Results for Cheney’s primary based on 33 percent of the expected vote reporting at 10:30 p.m. Eastern on Aug. 16 ..."> 3 And in the chart below, I’ve broken these forecasts down into four different categories: toss-up (where the leader had between a 50 and 60 percent chance of winning); lean (a 60 to 75 percent...The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win Republicans win 16 in 100 16 in 100 ...FiveThirtyEight is publishing forecasts for the 2015 parliamentary election developed by Chris Hanretty, Ben Lauderdale and Nick Vivyan, a group of U.K. academi…Nov 3, 2020 · Latest news. Nov. 3, 2020. Our 2020 forecasts — presidential, Senate, House — are all now officially frozen, meaning we won’t be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race. Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time. Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.Trump win Biden win Don’t count the underdog out! Upset wins are surprising but not impossible. Every outcome in our simulations All possible Electoral College outcomes for each candidate, with...Polls tracked by analysis website FiveThirtyEight show Biden's approval ratings hit an all-time low. Just over 37 percent of voters approve of his leadership since he was elected to the White ...In this election, Colorado weighed in as 9.1% more Democratic than the nation as a whole. The results established Colorado as a Democratic stronghold, rather than the Democratic-leaning battleground state it had been for the past three election cycles and previously a Republican leaning state, as Trump became the first Republican incumbent since William …8 p.m. Eastern. Races to watch. Senate. Timing of results. Should be pretty fast. A relatively small percentage of people are voting by mail in Alabama, which should help in getting results...So what would the election results look like if Democrats did 5.4 points better than the FiveThirtyEight forecast currently predicts in every Senate race and 6.3 points better in every House race?Download the data. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is …Live results and coverage of the May 24, 2022 Republican and Democratic primary elections in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, ... What Went Down During The May 24 Primary Elections By FiveThirtyEight.That said, comparing the performance of generic ballot polls in 2020 to 2018 is a bit of a red herring as generic ballot polls are often a better predictor of midterm results than presidential ...538, originally rendered as FiveThirtyEight, is an American website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by …We aren’t issuing a forecast for this runoff as we did for the general election, but we have calculated a polling average. And as of Monday at 4 p.m. Eastern, Warnock was averaging 50.2 percent ...At least one federal court has suggested that the courts could order a new election. In 1976, a District Court in New York heard a case alleging voter fraud in several urban locations. The court ...Apr 25, 2018 · And although the Republican, Lesko, is the apparent winner, the election represents another really bad data point for the GOP. Lesko’s margin of victory was only 5 percentage points in a ... FiveThirtyEight partisan lean, which is based on how a district voted in the past two presidential elections and (in a new twist) state legislative elections. In our partisan lean formula, 50 ...Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.Feb 23, 2021 · That said, comparing the performance of generic ballot polls in 2020 to 2018 is a bit of a red herring as generic ballot polls are often a better predictor of midterm results than presidential ... FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.07 Nov 2012 ... His final forecast gave Obama a 90.9% chance of victory. Silver also forecast 332 electoral college votes for Obama against 206 for Romney – the ...And something we noticed early on in 2022 was that pollsters were conducting more generic-ballot polls and fewer district-level polls. Overall, since 1998, 21 percent of the House polls in our ...Nov 9, 2022 · Coming into Election Day, Democrats and Republicans each held 50 seats in the Senate, but Democrats held power via Vice President Kamala Harris’s tie-breaking vote. 1 To shift the balance of ... The effects of the French Revolution had a major impact on France and Europe, which influenced and transformed these countries. About.com explains that the effects of the French Revolution resulted in an established democratic institution, ...Election 2023 results and analysis: Democrats excel in Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia - ABC News. —Leah Askarinam, 538. Nov 07, 7:23 PM EST. Earliest Kentucky results suggest slight Democratic improvement. To follow up on Geoffrey's latest Kentucky post, we now have 95 percent of the expected vote in from Pendleton County, and 93 …His exact role in instigating the attack and a broader effort to overturn results of the 2020 election, which he lost, resulted in two criminal indictments. He faces two others, totalling 91 felonies.Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here .Actual election results show no correlation between counties’ September 2016 unemployment rates and their level of support for Trump — places with higher unemployment rates were no more likely ...- Micah Cohen. 12:05 A.M. Outstanding Precincts in Ohio Appear to Favor Obama. The votes counted so far in Ohio show an extraordinarily close race, with President Obama only about 1,000 ballots...This allows you to see which states are expected to have reported results for a selected date and time over the coming days. For example the screenshot above shows (in yellow) all the states who FiveThirtyEight expect to have announced election results by 12 am tomorrow (Nov 9th). The FiveThirtyEight predictions for state election returns …Nov 3, 2020 · Latest news. Nov. 3, 2020. Our 2020 forecasts — presidential, Senate, House — are all now officially frozen, meaning we won’t be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race. Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time. Live results and coverage of the May 24, 2022 Republican and Democratic primary elections in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas, and Minnesota, including several key races for Senate, governor and ...The 2022 midterm elections will decide not only who controls the U.S. Senate and House but, crucially, which party governs 36 of the nation’s 50 states. These c…Biden approval. According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 2 42.1 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 52.5 percent disapprove (a net ...As a result, Ganim’s win could be moot — unless he wins the redone Democratic primary, in which case this general-election result would stand. —Nathaniel Rakich, 538 Nov 7, 11:55 PMComing into Election Day, Democrats and Republicans each held 50 seats in the Senate, but Democrats held power via Vice President Kamala Harris’s tie-breaking vote. 1 To shift the balance of ...As a result, Ganim’s win could be moot — unless he wins the redone Democratic primary, in which case this general-election result would stand. —Nathaniel Rakich, 538 Nov 7, 11:55 PMThe Republican Party currently controls the U.S. House, where 218 seats are needed for a majority (when there are no vacancies). This 3-part map lets you view the current composition of the U.S. House and make a …- Micah Cohen. 12:05 A.M. Outstanding Precincts in Ohio Appear to Favor Obama. The votes counted so far in Ohio show an extraordinarily close race, with President Obama only about 1,000 ballots...Nate Silver@natesilver538. Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. He is the author of “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t .... Brinks security jobs, bose wifi speakers